In India, the greatest impact is likely to be on housing.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected inflation to come down below the upper threshold level of 6 per cent by March quarter of the current fiscal. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank will keep 'Arjuna's eye' (focus) on the evolving inflation dynamics and will remain 'nimble and flexible' to deal with the price situation. Global commodity prices, including crude oil, have undergone some downward correction, but uncertainty continues to surround the near-term outlook in view of the prolonging geo-political hostilities. Moreover, the resurgence in domestic services sector activity could also lead to price increases, especially as firms pass on input costs.
TVS Motor Company met expectations in terms of revenue and posted a strong margin performance in Q1FY25. The key drivers were material cost savings and a better mix. The domestic demand outlook looks good with a rural rebound but geopolitical uncertainties in key export markets may dent overall growth.
The southwest monsoon in 2012 might have left Indian shores a couple of months back after having a rather uneven run during the four-month season, but its after-effect in pushing up prices of onion , edible oils , pulses , potatoes and banana is likely to be felt all year long.
The report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development said that commodity exchanges in India and China are becoming major players in global markets.
Pakistan's newly-elected President Asif Ali Zardari on Tuesday announced that he would not draw any salary during his tenure as part of his bid to help the cash-strapped country face the challenging economic hardship.
The actor-politician said she must remember that she is not only an artiste but also a BJP member now and her statements should be in line with her party's policies.
India's current account deficit declined sharply to 1 per cent of the GDP or $8.3 billion in the second quarter of this financial year, mainly due to lower merchandise trade deficit and growth in services exports, according to a RBI data released on Tuesday. The current account deficit (CAD), which represents the difference between the total amount of money sent abroad and money received from overseas across the economy, was 3.8 per cent of GDP or $30.9 billion in the July-September quarter in 2022-23. CAD was $9.2 billion or 1.1 per cent of GDP in the first quarter (April-June) of the current financial year 2023-24.
India's apex commodities market regulator the Forward Market Commission (FMC) says there is no plan now to ban futures trading in any other commodity.
'While investors need to be prepared for making some losses, they should not lose big money chasing euphoria amid fear of missing out.'
The country's real GDP growth in the first quarter will be better than the Reserve Bank's estimate of 8 per cent, economists said on Tuesday. Economists at the country's largest lender SBI pegged the growth at 8.3 per cent while domestic rating agency Icra estimated it to come even higher at 8.5 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which expects the GDP to grow at 6.5 per cent in FY24, has estimated a growth of 8 per cent in the April-June period.
'A long-term investor with a 4 to 5 year horizon could invest in this theme via SIPs.'
Unseasonal rains watered down the performance of consumer durables companies as temperatures cooled, impacting the sales of refrigerators and air conditioners (ACs) in the 2023-24 (FY24) April-June quarter. Centrum says in its report on the sector that the trade channel indicates a 25-30 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in sales of refrigerators and ACs in April and May due to restricted buying. "While some green shoots in demand were visible in June, overall growth for the quarter is likely to remain at a negative 10-12 per cent," observes the brokerage.
The reduction in rates is likely to be announced by the month end as per the practice of fortnightly revision in prices, and has been made possible due to appreciation of rupee against the US dollar.
Performance cycles indicate that hedging could be an opportunity and not just an imperfect risk management technique.
'It will be best for investors to have a systematic investment plan in mid-cap and small-cap funds with a three-/five-year horizon.'
India's economy is projected to slow to 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year starting April but will remain the fastest growing major economy in the world as it fared better in dealing with the extraordinary set of challenges the globe has faced, the Economic Survey 2022-23 said on Tuesday. India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.5 per cent in 2023-24 compares with an estimated 7 per cent expansion in current fiscal year (April 2022 to March 2023) and 8.7 per cent in the previous year. Like the rest of the world, India too faced an extraordinary set of challenges in tightening financial conditions and supply chain disruptions from a prolonged war in Europe but "withstood them better than most economies", the annual document detailing the state of the economy said.
Regional and local fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands are gaining momentum at the cost of national brands for the second quarter in a row. Consumer brands are now losing out on share, especially at the mass end of the market. Local brands have been able to capture market share as prices of raw materials are lower.
However, rural demand continued to remain a concern for FMCG companies during the quarter.
BofA Securities has revised its year-end Nifty target from its earlier projection of 16,000 to 14,500 now - down over 6 per cent from the current levels. Fast tightening monetary conditions, slowing growth/fears of US recession and the likely Nifty EPS (earnings per share) cuts, BofA Securities said, are the key headwinds for the markets in the near-term. However, clarity on macro and monetary policy outlook in the US/India, it said, is the silver lining that could see markets bottom out by August/September 2022.
Vedanta Ltd, which is planning to restart its copper plant in Tamil Nadu, is weighing the option to sell the unit at a valuation of up to Rs 4,500 crore, banking sources have said. The company had sought expressions of interest (EoIs) for the plant in June last year but did not get a good response as the unit was shut for the last five years. "The process has now restarted with the bankers reaching out to potential bidders," said a banker.
A year after it declassified steel and its products from the list of essential commodities, the government is preparing to bring it back under the ambit of the Essential Commodities Act, 1955. The Act gives power to the government to control production, supply and distribution of essential commodities at a fair price.
Signs of a strong pickup in hiring by companies are adding to the rosier outlook for Indian households.
As the auction approaches, here are the 10 wicketkeeper-batters who are poised to attract significant attention making them among the most sought-after players for IPL 2025.
The bids on Rishabh Pant could well soar like his audacious no-look six in the ongoing Perth Test, as he seems poised to become the highest paid player among the 577 who will go under the hammer at the two-day IPL mega auction, starting in Jeddah on Sunday.
'Rising Covid cases and localised lockdowns are being closely monitored.'
Prices of most commodities on which the government imposed an export ban to check inflation have risen sharply, touching an all-time high in cases.
With more and more players entering the fray, risk factor in commodity markets the world over has also gone up.
Prices of all metals - from steel to copper, aluminium, zinc and lead - have shot up by about 5-11 per cent in the past month. Commodity inflation is raising its head, forcing companies to consider price hikes.
Mutual funds focused on investing in fixed-income securities witnessed a heavy outflow of Rs 92,248 crore in June on uncertain macro environment, driven by expectations around an increasing rate cycle, higher commodity prices and slowdown in growth. This comes following a net outflow of Rs 32,722 crore in May and an inflow of Rs 54,756 crore in April, data available with Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) showed. Out of the 16 fixed-income or debt fund categories, 14 witnessed net outflows during the month under review.
Due to unseasonal rains, the second quarter of financial year 2023-24 (Q2FY24) was disappointing for the room-air conditioner (RAC) segment and Q3FY23 was also slow. While general consumption demand was low in Q3FY24, the low base and the pent-up demand from the first half of financial year 2023-24 (H1FY24) seem to have driven an off-season demand for RACs.
'Investors need to expect steady returns over the next one to two years with bouts of high volatility.'
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales continued to be lower in June compared to May with urban sales witnessing a steeper decline than rural. Sales of goods from shampoos to biscuits stayed lower due to inflationary pressures on commodities. This pushed consumer companies to continue taking price hikes, thus impacting demand, according to data by Bizom.
The value of oil imports decreased by 37.5%.
Despite multiple headwinds at the start of 2023, the Indian markets delivered a strong performance, posting 19-20 per cent growth for the year. Even as new records were set, investor sentiment remains strong going into 2024, given the lower inflation, expectations of steady to lower interest rates, higher economic growth, and strong inflows. However, the overriding concern for most brokerages is valuations.
In 2022, gold emerged as the top performer among all conventional asset classes with over 14 per cent returns mainly owing to the depreciation of the rupee.
The country's current account deficit is likely to hit a three-year high of 1.8 per cent or $43.81 billion in FY22, as against a surplus of 0.9 per cent or $23.91 billion in FY21, a report said on Thursday. According to an assessment by India Ratings, the Current Account Deficit (CAD) has moderated to $17.3 billion or 1.96 per cent of GDP in the fourth quarter of FY22 as against $8.2 billion or 1.03 per cent in the year-ago period, and massively down from $23.02 billion or 2.74 per cent in Q3, which was a 13-quarter high. The improvement in the key numbers are due to the remarkable improvement in merchandise exports in FY22, when it grew 42.4 per cent as against a negative 7.5 per cent in the pandemic-hit FY121.
In the Upper House of Parliament, Chairman M Venkaiah Naidu did not allow adjournment notices moved by opposition members on the issue of price rise, prompting members of the Congress, the Trinamool Congress, the Left parties, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Aam Aadmi Party, the Nationalist Congress Party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Shiv Sena to create an uproar.
India's widening current account deficit (CAD), driven by the massive spike in commodity prices led by crude oil, is set to put pressure on the fragile recovery, warns a brokerage report that has revised upwards its CAD forecast to $45 billion or 1.4 per cent of GDP by March. According to a report by British brokerage Barclays, the worries arise from the fact that the trade deficit has been jumping continuously since July. From an average monthly trade deficit of $12 billion till June, it has jumped to $16.8 billion in July-October, with September showing the highest-ever trade deficit on record at $22.6 billion, the report said.
If prices remain low the next decade might well see global trade stagnate.
